Unrest

When I first told my parents that I was applying to the Peace Corps, one of them responded, "Okay, as long as you don't go to Africa." Most of the headlines that hit the papers in the US are about violence, conflict - armed or political, unrest, poverty, famine, etc. I assured them that Peace Corps didn't place Volunteers in countries in danger of conflict. When I was placed in Mozambique, I studied the history and current state. Although Mozambique has passed through two brutal wars to reach its current state of peace, stability and accelerating development, there has been little to no unrest since the peace accord was signed more than twenty years ago. In fact, Mozambique was ranked the 48th most peaceful country in the world on the Global Peace Index last year, compared to the US at 88th.

When I arrived here, I found a country full of people who want nothing less than they want another war. Here in Chimoio, economic development is really starting to take hold and I spend my time with Mozambicans who are working their butts off to take advantage of the opportunities afforded by a growing economy, improving educational system, increasing participation in the global economy and all the other things that come with peace and investment. There is still a looooong way to go for Mozambique to improve the lot of the general population, but it's starting to happen.

One unusual aspect of post-war political life in Mozambique is that both parties involved in the conflict - FRELIMO, the party behind Mozambique's independence from Portugal and RENAMO, the rebel force backed by colonial Rhodesia and South Africa - continued to be the main political parties ruling the country. FRELIMO has been in power since independence and RENAMO has continued to be the main opposition. Occasionally, aging RENAMO leadership has made threats to shake things up when it begins to feel irrelevant, but the general state of affairs has remained stable. International aid money has been pouring into the country and more recently, international investment dollars after the discovery of vast deposits of coal and natural gas.

Then suddenly, due to a convergence of factors, RENAMO's leader Alfonso Dhlakama started ramping up the rhetoric. He moved his troops to an old encampment in Gorongosa, Sofala, the province directly east of my province of Manica. Back in April, there was a series of three incidents between RENAMO and the Mozambican authorities, including an attack cars traveling on the EN1, the main highway connecting the northern and southern regions of the country. With municipal elections looming in November, Peace Corps Volunteers have been a little anxious about where this all would go, but things appeared to settle down. RENAMO and FRELIMO began talks in the capital to resolve the opposition party's demands for increased participation in the government and cuts of the revenue coming in from mineral resources.

But starting last week, the situation began to destabilize. It started with an attack  on an armory outside Sofala's provincial capital, Beira, in which seven Mozambican soldiers were killed. The following Wednesday, RENAMO declared they would "paralyze" service on the train line used to transport coal for export from Tete to the port at Beira and make transit through the central part of the country "fragile." Since then, passenger transit on the rail line has been halted and coal transport significantly reduced. Cars traveling through Sofala on the EN1 have been escorted by police in "columns," but there still have been a number of attacks on the highway. It is still unclear whether RENAMO has been behind all the attacks, if they have been by opportunistic bandits, or if they have been by RENAMO-affiliated bandits but not at the direction of party leadership. RENAMO has not taken credit for any of the incidents and disavowed involvement in some.

All in all, especially as an outsider, it is very difficult to know the seriousness of the situation. Mozambique does not have a robust domestic media infrastructure and fofoca flies unchecked through rural communities. On Monday, Peace Corps decided to consolidate PCVs in Sofala and parts of Manica here in Chimoio as a precaution. When they arrived, they described people in their communities as terrified for another civil war and reporting all sorts of different things without  a clear source: armed bands of RENAMO fighters marching towards Dombe one day and Tete city the next; tobacco farmers being attacked for their money and weapons; raids on arms stashes that never make the news. What we do know is that there have been a handful of confirmed attacks on cars traveling on the EN1, including a police-escorted column of traffic on Monday, and that people are scared.

Yesterday was Independence Day and we were all nervous that someone would see it as an opportunity to make a statement, but I have not yet heard of any major incidents. There have been a number of "peace marches" throughout the country by a population that may have problems with current leadership, but knows that armed conflict is not the way to resolve them.

Our Director of Safety and Security is scheduled to arrive here in Chimoio today to begin a "ground assessment" of the situation in the central region, then make a decision about whether or not the consolidated PCVs can return to their sites. I feel perfectly safe here in Chimoio, but my stomach turns at the thought that we might be pulled out of the country if the situation remains unstable; the idea of leaving the people I am just beginning to get to know because my government thinks that the situation is dangerous. How would I look my students and colleagues in the eye and tell them that I hope everything turns out alright for them, but I'm going to wait it out somewhere a little safer? Thinking of how hard they have worked to become university students and professors, their hopes and dreams for their futures, it just makes me angry to think that there are people who want to destroy that. But hopefully, everything will calm down and Mozambique will continue its peaceful march towards increased prosperity.

However this turns out, I have already gained a profound appreciation for the stability we all enjoy in the US. Even when a bomb goes off or a crazy person opens fire in a school or our government hurdles towards default on our debt, we don't have to fear that everything will suddenly collapse. As my friend and fellow PCV noted yesterday, what we have experienced here on a small scale over the last week is how thousands of people live everyday: with constant insecurity and fear of violence. I find myself hesitating to fully commit my time to lesson-planning for August when it's possible that I might not in fact be teaching Marketing here. What if the plans I wanted to make involved building a home, investing in my children's education or starting a business? It is clear why political stability is crucial for economic development, but it is different to have a taste of it firsthand.

CNN just ran a good article on what is happening now, but while the title is "Is Mozambique sliding back toward conflict?" I do want to call attention to the crucial statement:

Southern Africa is not what it was in 1992 when the civil war ended, and despite continued deep inequality and poverty, Mozambique has also changed. Renamo has demonstrated that it can pull off sporadic attacks with small numbers of armed men, but it lacks the resources or support to return the country to civil war.

During the civil war, there were large flows of cash and weapons coming in from neighboring countries, which are don't exist now. Similarly, the overall feeling from the population seems to be that they just want the violence to stop. The civil war came quickly on the heels of the luta armada, as the war for independence is known, but Mozambicans have now become accustomed to peace and they like it. My personal feeling is that Mozambique will not return to an all-out war, but my fear is that the environment will become unstable enough to deter further investment and will hinder continued growth. So I am hoping that cooler heads will prevail and Mozambique will continue to build on the progress it has made over the last twenty years of peace and security.

UPDATE (Thursday, June 27):  We met with Alfredo, the PC Moz Chief of Safety and Security, yesterday. He is leaving today to visit the sites of the PCVs who were consolidated for a "ground assessment." He has already met with the Chief of Police in Inchope, the town where the EN1 meets the EN6, the east-west highway connecting Beira to the border with Zimbabwe. They agreed that as long as vehicles require military escorts to pass through Sofala, it is better to keep PCVs away from their sites. The concern is less with their immediate safety within their communities, and more with the possibility of those communities being cut off by disruption of transit infrastructure.

Alfredo was very open with us. He made it clear that he also wasn't sure where all of this would go. His concern seemed to be limited mostly to the province of Sofala and he did not seem too worried that the unrest would spread beyond that region; however, he did mention that those who lived through the civil war know that this is how it started. This actually made me feel better, to know he is applying lessons learned from the past. Maybe I am being a blind optimist, but it just doesn't feel like Mozambique is poised to tumble into a country-wide conflict right now. Where I am at least, there just isn't a will for it and as I mentioned before, the critical factors such as outside funding aren't here this time. Although FRELIMO and RENAMO continue to have an antagonistic relationship, the up-and-coming third party gaining popularity in the central region is one that urges compromise. There is economic growth and increased foreign investment and people feel like they have something to lose if there is disruption. I am sure the feeling is different in areas outside a city like Chimoio, where the wealth and economic opportunity may not have arrived yet, but I will remain optimistic for now.