Quick Election Update #2

Here is another very quick update on how the elections seem to have gone.

In the days immediately following the election, many observing bodies reported a free and fair process, including the African Union, European Union, and the Southern African Development Community.

However, it may turn out that the declaration was made prematurely. There were a few irregularities reported the day of the elections, but apparently not enough for the observers to call foul. Since election day, however, more and more fishy information has been coming out. Or information has not been coming out when it should.

One of the biggest complains has been a loooooong delay in results being released. In a country where there is a lot of suspicion of corruption, when the results aren't released in a timely manner, it makes people trust the results even less when they are finally made available. District counts should have been finished last Friday, October 17 and provincial by the 21st, but many of these deadlines aren't being met. The EU mission released a statement expressing "its concerns with the delays in the tabulation of results at district and provincial levels in some provinces, and considers that such mishaps in the tabulation process, added to the absence of official public explanations about these difficulties, hinders what has been an orderly start on election day," and stating that it "regrets the obstacles posed to the access of EU observers to information on the provincial tabulation in Cabo Delgado and Zambezia, when transparency and integrity should preside over the entire electoral process according to the law."

There have been a number of incidents that point to extreme disorganization in a best case scenario, if not serious fraud. For example, from the Mozambique Political Process Bulletin Published by the Center for Public Integrity:

On Sunday (Bulletin 65) we reported that the Tete city count stopped because there were 234 editais [official document stating the voting result from a polling station] and only 178 polling stations. The official STAE explanation yesterday was that some polling stations had more than one register book. Even if a polling station has two books, it is supposed to issue a single edital. But STAE says that in Tete staff erroneously wrote separate editais for each book.

We are now receiving reports of some polling stations, in Maputo and elsewhere, that had extra register books, sometimes called a “transfer list” (Lista de Transferidos) or simply an “extra voters list" (lista dos agregado). We are also seeing reports of polling stations where the number of voters is more than double the number of people on the register book as published in the lists of polling stations before the elections, which suggests they had an extra register book.

Or reports of unusually (nearly impossibly) high turnout in some areas that point to a high likelihood of ballot-box stuffing.

Reports of impossibly high turnouts are providing more evidence of ballot box stuffing. Turnouts of more than 80% of registered voters are highly unlikely in Mozambique, especially in rural areas where people have to walk long distances. It is much more likely that there has been ballot box stuffing, either putting unused ballot papers into the ballot box, or simply changing the results sheet (edital) at the end of the day. This occurs more easily in polling station where opposition parties have not been able to place delegates or polling station staff to watch the process.

Most extreme is Gaza, where five districts report very high turnouts: Chicualacuala 89%, Chigubo 82%, Mabalane 80%, Massangena 96% and Massingir 92%. These results are especially suspect when compared to equally loyal Frelimo areas of Gaza, such as Mandlakazi where the turnout was a more average 56%.

These five are small rural districts, but they have probably added 20,000 false votes for Frelimo candidate Filipe Nyussi.

The Electoral Observatory (EO) also points to suspiciously high turnouts in Guija, Gaza, where we do not have a district result yet.

Another suspect district is Ka Nanyaka in Maputo city, which reported a turnout of 79% compared to a city-wide turnout of 60%. Again the EO finds suspiciously high turnouts in the sample polling stations in that district.

Mabote district, Inhambane, with 81% turnout, was also reported by EO observers to have an impossibly high turnout.

EO data also point to ballot box stuffing in these districts:
Cabo Delgado: Muidumbe
Inhambane: Inhassoro, and Panda
Nampula: Ilha de Mocambique and Nacala-a-Velha
Niassa: Mecula
Tete: Cahora Bassa, Changara, and Zumbo

Most of these districts are strongly pro-Frelimo. The Tete districts are majority Frelimo with a significant Renamo vote. The Nampula districts are divided and hard fought. Ilha de Mocambique and Changara have a long history of ballot box stuffing in favour of Frelimo.

Historically, nearly all ballot box stuffing has been in favour of Frelimo and its presidential candidate.

The results that have been released indicate a victory by the incumbent party, with 57% of the vote. Although the Center for Public Integrity estimates that ballot-box stuffing increased votes for Filipe Nyusi by 100,000 votes. Using the Electoral Observatory sample count, we also estimate that there were problems such as very late opening or changed location for about 130 polling stations. Observers and party delegates reported cases of polling stations having an additional register book which was not on the official list of polling stations and register books. We suggest this happened in up to 250 polling stations. The full report and analysis is in the attached pdf version of this bulletin. However, the opposition parties are not prepared to accept this result. Afonso Dhlakama, the presidential candidate of the oldest, most established opposition party, responded to early results indicating a FRELIMO victory by asking for negotiations that could lead to a sharing of power by the two parties. He claimed that he did not want to negotiate because he wants to be president, but because he wants democracy in Mozambique. He has cited the unity governments in Kenya and Zimbabwe as examples.I am no fan of the violent tactics RENAMO has taken over the last year+, but this man does sometimes make sense when he talks. From Joseph Hanlon:

He is stressing that this is not about winning or losing elections. He says this was not a real election, and that diplomats should not accept in Africa an election which would not be acceptable in Europe. Thus he wants support for a unity government that would finally bring democracy to Mozambique.

I  was a little surprised that observers were so quick to declare the elections "free and fair" when there had been a number of irregularities. In fact, on October 21, the US Department of State finally issued a press release stating "important concerns about unequal access to the media, abuse of state resources, missing materials and registration books in polling stations, and the late opening of some polling stations. There were failures in the electoral administration, particularly with respect to the timely accreditation of national observers and party delegates."(Quoted here in English, or the original here in Portuguese). Interestingly, these problems of unequal access and abuse of state resources were happening all through the campaign process, but the statement didn't come until this delay in the release of results.

I will keep posting some updates as the post-election process continues.